by Naresh Jotwani
Jalaluddin Rumi: Love is the astrolabe of God’s mysteries.
Thiruvalluvar: The throb of life is love. Without it, humans are bodies of bones clad with skin.
Some of our earlier posts dealt with issues of human development and social well-being (here and here). Recently, Mikhail Afanasyev, of the Social Well-Being Index project in Russia, has written about the sharp decline in population occurring in China (here; also see Note 1). Afanasyev states clearly that several other countries in the region are on the same trajectory – but focusses only on China, likely by virtue of its being a major economy.
To be clear, neither the report nor this post is in any way indulging in ‘China bashing’. Rather, we question the implicit definition of ‘progress’ being applied across the world, a definition which shapes hundreds of millions of lives.
Afanasyev’s report projects a steep decline in the total population of China through the rest of this century. According to it, by the end of the century, the population will decline to about 200 million, from the current figure of about 1400 million. That is a huge drop. The two main causes cited are: (1) government policy, and (2) underlying changes in societal values — with the latter being the more powerful.
That last part should not surprise. People adapt quickly and go about their lives, driven by their own pressing concerns. They are not slowed down by power politics, wealth, corruption, age, big egoes … et cetera … which make ‘top policy makers’ glacially slow in sensing the changes occurring at ground level.
Supposedly, in ‘advanced’ countries, AI will step in to boost economies in the face of declining populations. After having largely lost their lead in manufacturing, western countries — especially the US — are betting BIG that AI will take them to levels of productivity unseen in history. Hence the hype.
A relationship must be noted between the current AI hype and western hegemony which the world has witnessed over recent centuries. The so-called ‘west’ – more aptly called ‘the wild west’ – prospered hugely through colonial loot, early lead in industry and armaments, devilishly cunning finance — and plain old subversion, or ‘divide, inflame and conquer’.
But Global South countries are beginning to wake up to the ugly truth about ‘the western civilization’, especially in the wake of the recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. A new racket is therefore needed to maintain the hallowed ‘western hegemony’. Enter AI (accompanied by trumpets).
Musk, Altman et al are promising to lead the US and other countries to imminent AI-powered utopia. Many hundreds of billions are being committed each year to AI ventures. The finance sector is euphoric, obviously because insiders will profit from the huge investments even if the promised utopia doesn’t arrive (see Note 2).
Not surprisingly, tech elites in India are climbing on to the AI bandwagon with abundant joy — even if the value proposition and the return on investment in AI are not yet clear. In spite of India’s superb philosophical traditions, uncritical emulation of western trends is a knee-jerk reaction amongst many.
The AI bubble and the US debt bubble may both pop at around the same time. That will cause a global financial earthquake, causing further crumbling of western hegemony. Millions of the wealthy ‘elite’ in India proudly see themselves as Anglo-, Euro- or Yankee-philes. Surely they will experience a culture shock if western hegemony were to crumble. After all, nobody likes to see their heroes bite the dust rather ignominously.
If we believe in Rumi’s and Thiruvalluvar’s observations cited above, life totally loses its meaning in the absence of love. Zilch remains. ‘Progress’ without love is only a scam.
An AI system can probably recite dozens of love songs within minutes. Let us assume that it can also compose some romantic poems – and that some people may even swoon at its verbose output. ‘Very smart AI types’ may even persuade themselves that the verbose output is love; that is plausible, since these people may not ever have experienced love.
But can the cleverest of AI systems feel the emotion known as love? Or any other emotions, for that matter?
The answer has to be HUGE NO. An AI system, all said and done, is a power-guzzling mountain of electronics. The verbal or visual output it generates has no relationship whatsoever to true feeling – as any acting coach can confirm who teaches actors to display or verbalize emotions.
If the hyped up AI megalomania continues, in effect the species will be damaged by its own limitless greed and ambition. In old days in India, one used to hear: लालच बुरी बला है। In today’s idiom, that translates to: Greed is a b**ch. Today, the global AI phenomenon of greed taken to power N is bringing home the profound and tragic truth of that statement.
What will happen if technology displaces human beings in large numbers, without offering them time or opportunity to adapt to changes? Since no mathematical model exists of human behaviour, common sense must answer that question.
Common sense says that conflict is likely, between those driving the displacement versus those being displaced. The ‘very smart AI types’ argue that ‘humanity’ will somehow ‘progress’ thereby — even as a large mass of the very same ‘humanity’ protests angrily outside! Progress?
A test of AI versus NI – natural intelligence – seems inevitable. One must keep one’s fingers crossed and find a way to stay sane and safe, using one’s own NI!😉
Note 1: Compared to Afanasyev’s report, a UN report projects a higher population in China by the year 2100, but the marked downward trend is still present. Over recent decades, ‘official projections’ of future populations have been higher than what the numbers havee eventually revealed. ‘Official projections’ usually lag ground level trends in people’s lives.
Note 2: The technical video post here suggests that, through index funds, the AI bubble has become ‘systemic’ — in the sense that money is pulled from pension funds without specific mandate from savers.
seeker-of-root-causes 